Wisconsin -- Biden 2020 Looks Stronger Than Clinton 2016

Then vice-president Joe Biden campaigns with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at an event in Scranton, Pa., August 15, 2016. (Charles Mostoller/Reuters)

On October 20, 2016:

Hillary Clinton was up 6.8 in the RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania. Today, Biden is up 3.8. (that race only tightened to 2.1 in the last week of 2016.)

Clinton was up twelve points in Michigan on that day. Biden is up 7.5 right now.

Clinton was up 6.5 in Wisconsin. Biden is up 6.2.

Clinton was up four points in Florida. Biden is up one point.

Clinton was up 2.8 in North Carolina. Biden is up two points.

Arizona has flipped the other way: Clinton was up 1.5 in Arizona. Today, Biden is up 3.1. Though as you can see, the polling turned dramatically pro-Trump in the week leading up to the election. Trump was also up 5.3 in Georgia in 2016. Today, Biden is up 1.2.

I’m pretty skeptical that Trump is going to lose Georgia, but who knows. I make no pretense at being any kind of election prognosticator. I’ve been assured repeatedly that the polling has been fixed. I am completely willing to believe that Biden will win handily. It could well start breaking his way in the polls next week for all I know. But I also find it inexplicable that so many Democrats seem to believe 2020 is in the bag.

David Harsanyi is a senior writer for National Review and the author of First Freedom: A Ride through America’s Enduring History with the Gun

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